Optimal designs for a non-linear model for the pharmacokinetics of ethanol elimination in the human body.

Abstract

[EN]The equation most commonly used to estimate a person’s blood alcohol concentration after consuming alcoholic drinks assumes zero-order kinetics in the ethanol elimination phase. This implies that the elimination process occurs in the body at a uniform rate as a function of the ethyl-oxidation constant. The model, formulated by Widmark, does not consider the phase of increase in concentration, and approximates the phase of elimination in a linear way, which may be insufficient if the tests are carried out in the first phases of alcohol intake. In this paper, a non-linear model that fits the different phases of the pharmacokinetic process of ethanol in the human body (absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination) is proposed. Optimal experimental designs methods are used in order to find the most informative observation times for the estimation of the parameters of the model.