Affective polarization, political mistrust and populist attitudes: longitudinal evidence from Italy

Abstract

[EN] Affective polarization (AP) is on the rise, while populist attitudes and political mistrust are becoming increasingly prominent in academic research. Under what conditions do these factors shape AP? Although they share key features – such as a Manichaean, dichotomous division between ‘Us’ and ‘Them’ – empirical studies on their relationship remain relatively limited. This article investigates the connection between AP, political mistrust, and populist attitudes through a longitudinal panel data analysis with random effects. The findings reveal that both populist attitudes and political mistrust are linked to higher levels of AP. More significantly, populist attitudes exert a stronger influence on individuals with low political trust than on those who have confidence in their representatives. These results suggest that populist attitudes and mistrust shape AP both directly and indirectly. By examining the affective and attitudinal dimensions of populism at the individual level, this study enhances our understanding of why these dynamics are so prevalent in contemporary democracies.